![]() ![]() ![]() We don’t anticipate much reaction to the unemployment rate data in the region, while Chile’s macro data may increase the odds of a half-point cut at the BCCh’s decision next month. Quickly, Brazil’s unemployment rate is seen unchanged while in Mexico and Colombia a 0.2ppts drop is projected Chilean retail sales should show another large double-digit y/y drop accompanied by weakness in industrial production Canadian GDP should be in line with Statcan guidance (+0.2% m/m) US core PCE inflation is forecast unchanged at 4.7% y/y and BanRep is universally expected to pause today after 1,125bps in hikes (see our preview here). It’s a busy day ahead in the Americas, starting with Brazilian and Mexican unemployment at 8ET, the release of Canadian GDP, and US PCE inflation and spending/income at 8.30ET, and a raft of Chilean data out at 9ET that is followed by a two-hour intermission until Colombian unemployment at 11ET ahead of BanRep’s policy announcement at 14ET. Treasurys traded in tight ranges through most of the overnight session until selling off starting just ahead of the European open on little of note a Eurozone inflation miss pumped the brakes on the selloff, however. SPX futures are 0.3% higher and setting up the index for a ~5% gain for the quarter (~3% in June). ![]() Oil prices are a touch stronger (+0.2%), copper is up 0.5% but iron ore is down 1.7%. The USD is mixed to stronger, chopping around and since the European open seeing the MXN among the few up on the day (+0.2%). Asia trading was rather calm again and made little of weaker-than-expected June Tokyo CPI and Chinese PMI data, another strong CNY fix by the PBoC, and some downbeat comments from Chinese steelmakers on the outlook for H2-23. ![]()
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